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Prairie grain producers have expanded and intensified production to such an extent over the years that accurate management decision making is now critical to their success. Although farmers have been confronted with complex decisions for some time, most attempts at formal analysis were limited to specific situations or generalized to such an extent that the answers were not fully acceptable to the farmers. In many field machine operating situations, the farmer must do a mental balancing or trade-off of operating characteristics within alternative systems in order to pick what he considers to be his best choice. This is especially common in harvesting operations where high capital cost, risk of completion, opportunity cost of other fall work, operating cost, labor resources and personal preference can effectively cloud the correct choice. Since most of these considerations vary between individual operations, answers from general case situations have not been readily accepted by the farmer. There is obvious merit in presenting basic information in such a manner that individuals could readily assess their particular situation and, with the aid of this information, arrive at a system best suited to their specific needs. In recent years, new techniques utilizing computer facilities have been developed and demonstrated by various researchers (5, 8, 10). System simulation using computer models of real situations is a relatively new analytical technique that has been developed to handle the component variables of a system that are stochastic in nature (3, 5, 6).
an evaluation of harvest simulation as an aid to decision making
Campbell, W.D. and J.B. McQuitty 1972. AN EVALUATION OF HARVEST SIMULATION AS AN AID TO DECISION MAKING. Canadian Agricultural Engineering 14(1):11-14.
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