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Calculation of workday probabilities by accumulation over sub-periods
Authors: Hayhoe, Henry N.
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Download file: https://library.csbe-scgab.ca/docs/journal/22/22_1_71_ocr.pdf
Published in: CBE Journal » CBE Journal Volume 22 (1980)
Download RAW file: https://library.csbe-scgab.ca/docs/journal/22/22_1_71_raw.pdf
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Description: For efficient machinery management, a farmer needs information on the number of field workdays (WD) available in order to properly balance between the timeliness costs of an inadequate system and the inflated capital costs of over-investment in machinery (Elliot et al. 1977). Because the number of field WD available varies from year to year, estimates of the minimum number available at different probability or certainty levels is also required. Fulton et al. (1976) suggest that for operations where failure to complete is very costly, such as could be the case with corn planting, one might prefer to plan for success with a frequency of 7 yr in 8. For operations where failure to complete on time means only inconvenience, a much lower relative frequency could be acceptable. Numerous studies have been carried out to meet the widely recognized requirement for this type of information on field WD (Baier et al. 1978 Brown and Van Die 1974 Dyer et al. 1978 Elliott et al. 1977 Fulton et al. 1976). This paper is concerned with solutions to two practical problems that have been encountered in this work. They were pointed out by Fulton et al. (1976) and further discussed by Baier et al. (1978). The first problem is discussed in detail by Fulton et al. (1976) and relates to the fact that estimates of the number of WD available on a weekly basis cannot in general be added directly for multi-week estimates. The second problem, as stated by Fulton et al. (1976), is that the mathematical probability distribution of the number of suitable days during each week is not generally known.
Keywords: calculation of workday probabilities by accumulation over sub-periods
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Citation: Hayhoe, Henry N. 1980. CALCULATION OF WORKDAY PROBABILITIES BY ACCUMULATION OVER SUB-PERIODS. Canadian Agricultural Engineering 22(1):71-76.
Volume: 22
Issue: 1
Pages 71 - 76
Contributor:
Date: 1980
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Publication type: Journal
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Coverage: Canada
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DOI:
Description: For efficient machinery management, a farmer needs information on the number of field workdays (WD) available in order to properly balance between the timeliness costs of an inadequate system and the inflated capital costs of over-investment in machinery (Elliot et al. 1977). Because the number of field WD available varies from year to year, estimates of the minimum number available at different probability or certainty levels is also required. Fulton et al. (1976) suggest that for operations where failure to complete is very costly, such as could be the case with corn planting, one might prefer to plan for success with a frequency of 7 yr in 8. For operations where failure to complete on time means only inconvenience, a much lower relative frequency could be acceptable. Numerous studies have been carried out to meet the widely recognized requirement for this type of information on field WD (Baier et al. 1978 Brown and Van Die 1974 Dyer et al. 1978 Elliott et al. 1977 Fulton et al. 1976). This paper is concerned with solutions to two practical problems that have been encountered in this work. They were pointed out by Fulton et al. (1976) and further discussed by Baier et al. (1978). The first problem is discussed in detail by Fulton et al. (1976) and relates to the fact that estimates of the number of WD available on a weekly basis cannot in general be added directly for multi-week estimates. The second problem, as stated by Fulton et al. (1976), is that the mathematical probability distribution of the number of suitable days during each week is not generally known.
Keywords: calculation of workday probabilities by accumulation over sub-periods
Résumé:
Mots-clés:
Citation: Hayhoe, Henry N. 1980. CALCULATION OF WORKDAY PROBABILITIES BY ACCUMULATION OVER SUB-PERIODS. Canadian Agricultural Engineering 22(1):71-76.
Volume: 22
Issue: 1
Pages 71 - 76
Contributor:
Date: 1980
Technical field:
Conference name:
Session name:
Other information:
Type:
Format:
Publication type: Journal
Source:
Relation:
Coverage: Canada
Language 1:
Language 2:
Rights:
Notes:
Other files:
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