Authors: Baljeet Kaur, Narayan Shrestha, Prasad Daggupati, Ramesh Rudra,
Published in: CSBE-SCGAB Technical Conferences » 5th CIGR and AGM Quebec City 2021 » Special Session on Hydrological Modelling: a Tool for Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture
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Description: Climate change poses a threat to socio-economic development and water security of a region causing changes in the precipitation patterns and other weather variables which affect streamflow or freshwater availability. Understanding the impact of climate change on spatial and temporal variability of water security can play an important role in sustainable management of fresh-water resources in a region. In this study, a previously developed hydrological model using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), for the GRW, was used. For the analysis of blue and green water availability and water security the GRW was divided into eight drainage zones. Future predictions from three GCMs (Global Circulation Models) under two different IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios, downscaled using two different downscaling methods, were input to the already developed model to analyze the impact of climate change on available freshwater resources under two future periods, 2035-64 and 2070-99. The ensemble results predicted a warmer and wetter future for the GRW. Precipitation in the future period is projected to primarily include intense-short duration storms and temperature would increase more or less uniformly over the GRW. Blue water (BW) and Green Water Flow (GWF) projected an overall increase and Green Water Storage (GWS) projected an overall decrease. BW scarcity increased drastically in the future period as compared to green water scarcity which increased moderately. GW scarcity in some regions highlighted the need of irrigation in the future period.
Conference name: 5th CIGR International Conference and CSBE-SCGAB AGM 2021, Quebec City,QC, 11-14 May 2021.
Session name: SPECIAL SESSION Hydrological modelling II
Publication type: Presentation
Language 1: en
Rights: Canadian Society for Bioengineering