Authors: André St-Hilaire, Michael Van den Heuvel, Christian Charron, Taha Ouarda
Published in: CSBE-SCGAB Technical Conferences » 5th CIGR and AGM Quebec City 2021 » Special Session on Hydrological Modelling: a Tool for Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture
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Description: In many jurisdictions, environmental flows (E-flows) are established by defining a specific threshold of minimum flow (or maximum abstraction) that must remain in the river (or be available for withdrawal). These E-flow statistics are often based of the distribution of historical flows for a given river. In the context of climate change, flow time series are (or may likely become) non stationary. Another important physical variable in rivers is water temperature. The increase in air temperature and potential lower flows in rivers caused by climate change may result in significant increases in summer river temperature. The objective of the present study is to test the implementation of the CEQUEAU hydrological and water temperature model to simulate both variables on one PEI drainage basin: the Wilmot River. The hydrological module was calibrated using a Tabu Search algorithm for the period 1992-2012, with acceptable results (KGE = 0.6) and validated for the period 1972-1991 (KGE=0.7). The water temperature model calibration and validation yielded RMSEs of 1°C.
The hydrological and water temperature modules were used to generate future scenarios using climate model outputs based on two greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). When a linear trend is fitted to the time series of water temperature for scenarios RCP8.5 for 2018-2050 And 2050-2100 mean temperature increase is estimated to be 0.88 °C end 1.8 °C respectively.
Conference name: 5th CIGR International Conference and CSBE-SCGAB AGM 2021, Quebec City,QC, 11-14 May 2021.
Session name: SPECIAL SESSION Hydrological modelling II
Publication type: Presentation
Language 1: en
Rights: Canadian Society for Bioengineering