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Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrology of a Pasture-Dominated Ungauged Watershed in the Canadian Prairies using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model
Authors: Baiyan Zhou,
Befekadu Taddesse Woldegiorgis,
Kim Ominsk,
Masoud Asadzadeh,
Francis Zvomuya,
Marcos C Cordeiro
Identifier: CSBE23245
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Published in: CSBE-SCGAB Technical Conferences » AGM Lethbridge 2023
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Description: : Hydrological processes play an important role in nutrient dynamics in pasture landscapes because nutrient export is facilitated by water movement. Hydrological processes, in turn, are affected by climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to use the physically-based Cold Regions Hydrological Model to assess the impact of future climate projections on the hydrology of a pasture-dominated basin within the Beaver Creek watershed in Manitoba. This ungauged basin covers an area of 46.6 km2 ,and it is characterized by flat topography, loamy sand soils, and pasture land cover (over 70% of the area). Historical simulations (1998-2020) were carried out and assessed based on regional estimates of the annual water yields and evapotranspiration (ET). The model reproduced annual water yields satisfactorily, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.66, and a percent bias (pbias) of 8.2%. As for ET, 9 out of 14 years (64%) were well-captured within the range of long-term average ET in the Prairies. The calibrated model was forced with an ensemble future climate dataset (2021-2079) for two emissions scenarios (i.e., RCP 4.5 and 8.5). The results showed that annual stream discharge will increase by 23.69% and 31.77%, while ET will also increase by 18.39% and 22.22%, respectively. Moreover, the timing of the projected peak discharges in both emissions scenarios took place one month earlier as compared to that of the historical period, implying a generally warmer climate with earlier snowmelt. Greater stream discharge in both emissions scenarios could potentially lead to increased risk of nutrient export.
Keywords: Hydrological simulations, nutrient export, pasturelands, climate change
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Date: 2023-07-23
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Conference name: CSBE/SCGAB 2023 Annual Conference, Lethbridge, Alberta, 23-26 July 2023.
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Type: Poster
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Publication type: Text.Abstract
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Coverage: North_America
Language 1: en
Language 2:
Rights: Canadian Society for Bioengineering
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DOI:
Description: : Hydrological processes play an important role in nutrient dynamics in pasture landscapes because nutrient export is facilitated by water movement. Hydrological processes, in turn, are affected by climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to use the physically-based Cold Regions Hydrological Model to assess the impact of future climate projections on the hydrology of a pasture-dominated basin within the Beaver Creek watershed in Manitoba. This ungauged basin covers an area of 46.6 km2 ,and it is characterized by flat topography, loamy sand soils, and pasture land cover (over 70% of the area). Historical simulations (1998-2020) were carried out and assessed based on regional estimates of the annual water yields and evapotranspiration (ET). The model reproduced annual water yields satisfactorily, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.66, and a percent bias (pbias) of 8.2%. As for ET, 9 out of 14 years (64%) were well-captured within the range of long-term average ET in the Prairies. The calibrated model was forced with an ensemble future climate dataset (2021-2079) for two emissions scenarios (i.e., RCP 4.5 and 8.5). The results showed that annual stream discharge will increase by 23.69% and 31.77%, while ET will also increase by 18.39% and 22.22%, respectively. Moreover, the timing of the projected peak discharges in both emissions scenarios took place one month earlier as compared to that of the historical period, implying a generally warmer climate with earlier snowmelt. Greater stream discharge in both emissions scenarios could potentially lead to increased risk of nutrient export.
Keywords: Hydrological simulations, nutrient export, pasturelands, climate change
Résumé:
Mots-clés:
Citation:
Volume:
Issue:
Pages -
Contributor:
Date: 2023-07-23
Technical field:
Conference name: CSBE/SCGAB 2023 Annual Conference, Lethbridge, Alberta, 23-26 July 2023.
Session name:
Other information:
Type: Poster
Format:
Publication type: Text.Abstract
Source:
Relation:
Coverage: North_America
Language 1: en
Language 2:
Rights: Canadian Society for Bioengineering
Notes:
Other files:
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