Assessment of the effect of climate change on potato growth in eastern Canada with the STICS soil-crop model
Description: Future climate conditions are likely to affect potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) yield, N requirements, abiotic stresses, and production practices. Soil-crop models are useful tools to assess the impact of climate change on crop growth because, when properly calibrated, they simulate the complex interactions between plant, soil, and climate. Our objective was to evaluate the potential effect of climate change on potato growth under eastern Canadian conditions. Using the STICS soil-crop model calibrated for the indeterminate and late-maturing Russet Burbank cultivar (Morissette et al. 2016), simulations were performed for two sites (Quebec and Fredericton), three climatic periods (reference, 1971-2000; near future, 2020-2049; and distant future, 2050-2079), two future atmospheric CO2 representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), and two management practices (irrigated and non-irrigated) using climate projections of the CanRCM4 model (Qian et al., 2016). Slight yield increases from 4 to 13% are projected for the near future period relative to the reference period but no significant yield changes are projected for the distant future period, regardless of RCP. The growing season is projected to start earlier by 1 week and 2 weeks for the near and distant future periods, respectively. Because of the greater daily growing degree-day accumulation in future periods, tuber maturity could be reached in 116 to 127 days compared to 141 days for the reference period. Irrigation requirements are not expected to be different from the reference period but crop N uptake could increase by up to 21 kg N ha-1 (14%).
Keywords: Climate change; potato; yield; N uptake; modeling; STICS
Conference name: CSBE/SCGAB 2016 Annual Conference, Halifax, 3-6 July 2016.
Session name: Session 1C: Information Technologies and Bio-instrumentation
Citation: . 2016. Assessment of the effect of climate change on potato growth in eastern Canada with the STICS soil-crop model. CSBE/SCGAB 2016 Annual Conference, Halifax, 3-6 July 2016.
Publisher: Canadian Society for Bioengineering
Language 1: en
Rights: Canadian Society for Bioengineering